Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September 2026, reaching their lowest index reading since the National Association of Realtors began tracking contracts in 2001. The nationwide slowdown unfolded as mortgage rates climbed, even as more homes became available. The latest figures show where demand weakened and how the changes affect buyers and sellers.
Key Takeaways
- Pending home sales declined 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025, bringing the national index to a record-low 66.0
- The West experienced the steepest monthly decrease at 9.2%, followed by the South at 8.2%
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.40% on October 15
- Active U.S. home listings increased 5.4% annually, while 20.8% of listed properties had price reductions
- Completed existing-home sales increased 1.5% in September despite the decline in newly signed contracts
The decline was considerably steeper than economists expected. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% monthly decrease, but the National Association of Realtors reported a 7.3% retreat in signed contracts for existing homes.
“Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the association.
The Pending Home Sales Index fell to 66.0, down 11.3% from September 2025. That was the lowest reading in the measure’s history, a distinction that applies to contracts rather than completed home sales.
Rising Mortgage Rates Push Pending Home Sales to Record Low
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows how quickly financing conditions shifted. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.71% on September 3 and 7.03% on September 24. By October 15, the average had reached 7.40%, its highest level in nearly three years.
For a household seeking a home loan, higher rates raise the monthly principal-and-interest payment on the same amount borrowed. A buyer whose budget was workable earlier in September could face a different calculation by the time a purchase agreement was ready to sign.
Those costs sit alongside property taxes, homeowners insurance, upkeep and potential association fees. A lower listing price may help reduce the amount financed, but it does not automatically offset a higher interest rate.
The rise also highlights how higher mortgage borrowing costs can coexist with more negotiating room over a property’s asking price. Both conditions can be present in the same market without making every listed home affordable.
Freddie Mac’s published figures are national averages, not guaranteed loan offers. Rates offered to individual applicants vary with credit, down payments, loan type and lender terms. The contract data cannot identify the personal reason each household postponed or abandoned a purchase.
The National Association of Realtors bases its index on signed agreements for existing homes that have not yet closed. Its sample covers roughly 40% of monthly multiple-listing-service data. Many of those agreements become completed transactions within one or two months, although financing, inspection and appraisal issues can alter that timeline.
Home Purchase Contracts Decline Across All Four U.S. Regions
The West experienced the largest decline in September, with pending contracts down 9.2% from August and 15.0% from a year earlier. The South followed with an 8.2% monthly decrease and a 12.0% annual decline.
In the Midwest, contract activity fell 6.5% month over month and 8.7% year over year. The Northeast recorded declines of 4.2% and 9.4%, respectively. No major U.S. region posted an increase in either comparison.
The national pattern did not translate into identical conditions in every city. Among the 50 largest metropolitan areas examined using Realtor.com Economics data, Nashville’s pending contracts decreased 2.0% annually. Hartford was down 2.1%, San Francisco’s metro area 3.5%, and Austin 5.9%.
Those metros had smaller annual declines than the national figure, but their figures still represented fewer signed contracts than a year earlier. The regional totals also conceal differences between neighborhoods, property types and price ranges.
For sellers, a decline in contracts points to a smaller pool of buyers completing agreements during September. For buyers, less competition may create negotiating opportunities in certain local markets, but the published regional numbers alone cannot establish whether a specific home is competitively priced.
More Listings and Price Cuts Change the Buyer-Seller Balance
At the same time that contracts slowed, the number of homes advertised for sale increased. Realtor.com counted 1,161,615 active U.S. listings in September, up 5.4% from a year earlier. The wider selection did not result in stronger national contract activity.
Price cuts also became more common. About 20.8% of active listings had a price reduction, 0.9 percentage points more than in September 2025. The national median asking price was $419,250, down 1.4% from a year earlier.
The increase in available homes for sale can provide households with more properties to compare, but asking-price changes do not show the final price a buyer pays. Individual sellers may reduce a listing because of property condition, time on the market or nearby comparable homes.
A separate measure from the National Association of Realtors showed 1.60 million existing homes available at the end of September, 4.6% more than a year earlier. That represented 4.8 months of supply at the prevailing sales pace. Its inventory measure is not directly interchangeable with Realtor.com’s active-listings count.
Completed existing-home sales, meanwhile, increased 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 3.99 million. The apparent contrast is explained partly by timing: September closings frequently reflect agreements signed before the sharpest rise in rates.
The median price of existing homes that actually sold was $417,500, an increase of 1.3% from September 2025. That measure covers completed transactions, unlike Realtor.com’s median asking price, and the two statistics cannot be read as a single price trend.
For households considering a purchase, the relevant affordability calculation includes both the negotiated price and the cost of financing. For homeowners preparing to sell, recent comparable sales and competing listings offer more practical guidance than a national index on its own.
The latest data describe a market in which choices have expanded but financing has grown more expensive. The 7.3% contraction reflects contracts signed in September, not a corresponding decline in the number of homes sold that month.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are pending home sales?
Pending home sales measure signed contracts to buy existing homes before the purchases close. They typically lead completed-sale figures by one or two months, although individual transactions may take longer.
How much did pending home sales fall in September 2026?
Pending home sales dropped 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025. The national index reached 66.0, its lowest level since tracking began in 2001.
Which U.S. region experienced the largest decline?
The West had the largest monthly drop at 9.2%, according to the National Association of Realtors. Its pending contracts were also 15.0% below the year-earlier level.
Do more listings mean homes have become more affordable?
Not necessarily. More options and reduced asking prices may help some buyers negotiate, but mortgage rates, taxes and insurance still shape the total cost of owning a home.
