By: KeyCrew Media
In Madison, New Jersey, just 13 or 14 homes were listed for sale when agent Scott Spelker checked the MLS the day before this interview. Before the pandemic, even October, historically a slower month, would show around 25 listings. During peak spring months, 50 or 60 homes might be available at once. Over the past two years, Spelker says, the count has held steady in the low 20s at its highest point.
The ceiling has settled, and it has stayed there.
Two Forces Holding Inventory Down
Spelker identifies two distinct forces keeping homes off the market in Morris County, New Jersey. The first is the benefit of mortgage rate lock-in: homeowners who secured rates of 2.5 or 3 percent are understandably content to stay put rather than rebuy at current rates. “Some people aren’t moving because they have a low mortgage rate, two and a half, 3%,” he says. “They’re not moving for that reason.”
The second force gets less attention nationally but carries weight in affluent commuter towns like Madison, Chatham, and Summit. Spelker says some homeowners who had planned to relocate to lower-cost states, Florida, North Carolina, have happily chosen to stay because their adult children and grandchildren remain in the New York metro area. Those homes that might have come to market have instead stayed with their current owners.
Together, these two forces have created what Spelker calls a logjam. Estates, divorces, and other life events still bring some properties to market, keeping a steady flow of opportunities available. “I don’t really see that logjam breaking anytime soon,” he says.
How Moving Drives Spending
Spelker notes that moving activity reaches well beyond real estate. He points to Zillow and other transaction-dependent platforms, whose performance tracks closely with how often people move. He also cites Home Depot as a bellwether: “Less people moving, you move into a house, immediately you start doing projects and stuff like that.” In Spelker’s view, retailers like Home Depot are closely tied to the same dynamic shaping listings in towns like Madison.
When people move, they renovate, furnish, and hire contractors. The residential transaction triggers a long chain of spending, and that activity is closely linked to how often homes change hands.
What Buyers Face Right Now
For buyers in this market, each opportunity draws strong, enthusiastic interest. Spelker describes the current cycle: a home lists on a Thursday, draws multiple showings over the weekend, and by Monday or Tuesday the listing agent sends guidelines for highest-and-best offers. Four, eight, sometimes 15 offers come in.
Buyers who aren’t selected receive helpful feedback on where they ranked. “There were eight offers. You guys came in eighth,” Spelker says, recounting a typical exchange. That feedback helps calibrate expectations, and the enthusiasm buyers bring is real. “There’s a period of time where they’re really seeing themselves in that house,” he says. “They’re really excited about it. You can just see it in their eyes.”
Spelker says The Spelker Team’s longest-running buyer clients searched for three years before closing on a home. During that time, one of their children went from infancy to nursery school. He encourages buyers by pointing to past clients who came up short on earlier offers and later found a home they liked better.
One detail shapes days-on-market figures and is worth understanding for out-of-area agents. Listings in this market typically appear as “coming soon” on the MLS for roughly 10 days before going live, allowing the property to feed through to Zillow, Realtor.com, and Homes.com. By the time a home is actually available for showings, it may already show 13 or 14 days on the market. Local agents understand this, while agents from outside the area sometimes ask why a home with apparent market time is still generating multiple offers.
What Could Break the Logjam
Spelker is candid that the timing of a supply shift is hard to predict. “It’s all cyclical,” he says. “The dam will release. I don’t know what will exactly take place, but at some point in time, there’ll be way more inventory coming on.” The two mechanisms he identifies are a change in the buyer pool or a surge of new listings, and he expects both to arrive in time.
For buyers weighing whether to keep competing or wait, the timing of any supply shift is hard to call. The current pattern in Madison holds steady: a handful of homes list, a weekend of showings follows, and a Tuesday deadline sets the outcome. Scott and Amy Spelker work with buyers and sellers across Madison and surrounding Morris County communities through The Spelker Team.
The Spelker Team, Scott and Amy Spelker, are real estate agents at Coldwell Banker Realty in Madison, NJ. Amy brings ten years of professional interior design experience to every listing she prepares. Scott is also Madison’s Town Historian.
Disclaimer: This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.
