13.9 million homes occupied by baby boomers and the Silent Generation could be released from older owner-occupancy between 2026 and 2036. The projection points to a gradual shift in housing supply while showing that the types of homes becoming available may not align evenly with current buyer needs.
Key Takeaways
- 13.9 million homes could be released from older owner-occupancy between 2026 and 2036
- Annual releases could rise from about 1.27 million homes in 2027 to 1.52 million in 2036
- About 45% of projected 2027 releases would need to become for-sale listings to restore annual inventory to pre-pandemic levels, assuming other conditions remain unchanged
- Only about 380,000 projected releases are expected to have two or fewer bedrooms
- Nearly three-quarters of projected releases are expected to be three- or four-bedroom homes
Older Generations Could Release 13.9 Million Homes
Realtor.com’s Generational Housing Succession report projects that 13.9 million homes currently occupied by baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation will leave older owner-occupancy between 2026 and 2036.
The projection includes homes released when older owners move to another type of housing or otherwise end their occupancy. It does not assume that every property will immediately be listed for sale.
Realtor.com estimates that the two generations currently own and occupy about 36.7 million homes. That total is projected to decline to approximately 22.8 million by 2036.
Changing financial conditions could influence some of those housing decisions. Rising taxes, insurance, maintenance expenses and replacement-housing costs have increased housing pressure on seniors, potentially affecting decisions about whether to remain in a home, downsize or relocate.
The projected 13.9 million-home decline is expected to occur gradually across the decade rather than through a sudden increase in available listings.
A home leaving older owner-occupancy also does not necessarily mean it will enter the for-sale market. Some properties may transfer within families, become rentals or change occupancy through other arrangements.
Annual Home Releases Could Increase Through 2036
The annual pace of projected releases is expected to increase over the forecast period. Realtor.com estimates approximately 1.27 million homes could be released in 2027, rising to about 1.52 million in 2036.
The Silent Generation is expected to account for a larger share of turnover early in the period, while baby boomers are projected to become the larger source of released homes around 2029.
Because baby boomers represent a larger generation, their increasing share of housing succession could contribute to a higher annual number of properties leaving older owner-occupancy later in the decade.
The report indicates that the largest effects may occur after 2036, meaning the current projection captures only part of the longer-term generational transition.
The annual figures are important because the housing-market effect depends heavily on timing. A gradual increase in released properties would affect supply differently from millions of homes becoming available at once.
Housing Inventory Gains Depend on Homes Reaching the Market
The projected releases do not translate directly into an equivalent increase in active housing inventory.
Realtor.com estimates that if approximately 45% of homes projected to be released in 2027 became for-sale listings, that amount would be enough to restore annual listings to pre-pandemic levels, assuming other market conditions remained unchanged.
That calculation highlights the distinction between housing succession and active inventory. Properties can leave older owner-occupancy through several pathways, and only a portion may be offered to buyers.
The report also estimates that the 13.9 million projected releases would equal about 24.3% of recent listings when compared with Realtor.com’s recent listing base. That comparison does not mean the homes will enter the market simultaneously.
The potential inventory effect will instead be spread across multiple years and will depend on how individual properties are transferred, sold or repurposed.
Housing size is another important factor. Even if more properties become available, the additional supply may be concentrated in categories that do not match the homes most sought by certain buyers.
Larger Homes Account for Most Projected Releases
The projected housing turnover is heavily concentrated in larger properties.
Realtor.com estimates that approximately 9.9 million homes, or 71.2% of the projected releases, will have three or four bedrooms.
Another 3.6 million properties are expected to have five or more bedrooms. Together, those categories represent the overwhelming majority of the projected 13.9 million homes.
The report estimates that family-sized homes could represent about 24.7% of recent listings when projected annual releases are compared with recent market activity. The comparable figure for larger homes is approximately 67.2%.
That distribution means generational housing turnover is unlikely to add supply evenly across every part of the market.
Smaller properties have a higher projected retention rate among older owners, limiting the number expected to become available during the forecast period.
For buyers, the result could be greater potential availability of family-sized and larger houses while entry-level supply remains comparatively constrained.
Starter-Home Supply Remains Limited in the Projection
Realtor.com estimates that only about 380,000 of the 13.9 million projected releases will have zero, one or two bedrooms.
That relatively small number is significant because first-time buyers already face a market in which the traditional starter-home path is changing as affordability pressures push some households toward smaller, alternative or rental-based options.
The report estimates that older households currently own about 1.33 million starter-sized homes. Approximately 70.7% are projected to remain with those owners during the 10-year period, leaving about 380,000 expected releases.
By comparison, 9.9 million three- and four-bedroom homes are projected to leave older owner-occupancy, along with another 3.6 million properties containing five or more bedrooms.
The projected succession could therefore expand potential housing supply without substantially increasing the number of smaller homes typically associated with entry-level buyers.
This difference in property size is central to the report’s broader implication: a large number of homes may change occupancy during the next decade, but the resulting supply will not necessarily match demand across every housing segment.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many homes could be released from older owner-occupancy by 2036?
Realtor.com estimates that 13.9 million homes currently occupied by baby boomers and the Silent Generation could be released between 2026 and 2036. The projection does not mean all 13.9 million properties will become for-sale listings.
Which generations account for the projected home releases?
The projection covers baby boomers and the Silent Generation. The Silent Generation is expected to account for more of the earlier turnover, with baby boomers becoming the larger source of releases around 2029.
How could the projected releases affect U.S. housing inventory?
The releases could increase the pool of homes changing ownership or occupancy, but the effect on active inventory will depend on how many properties are actually listed for sale.
What types of homes are expected to be released?
Most projected releases are larger properties. Realtor.com estimates that 9.9 million will have three or four bedrooms, while another 3.6 million will have five or more bedrooms.
How many projected releases will have two or fewer bedrooms?
Approximately 380,000 projected releases are expected to have zero, one or two bedrooms, representing a relatively small share of the 13.9 million total.
