Foreclosure rates are rapidly increasing in a complex and hazardous area of commercial real estate finance, signaling a deepening crisis in the property sector. Investors focusing on distressed debt are rapidly acquiring defaulted loans, highlighting the pandemic’s impact on the economy and property values. This trend is seen as a potential harbinger of more widespread issues in the commercial property sector, previously buoyed by substantial government stimulus and leniency from lenders.
The rise in distressed sales is particularly concentrated around commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), which consist of loan pools for office buildings, shopping centers, and hotels, and are traded among investors. The onset of the pandemic led to a halt in CMBS loan repayments by many borrowers. Currently, as property values drop and debt servicing becomes more challenging, lenders are seizing these properties and selling them at reduced prices to investors.
Although CMBS foreclosures make up a minor portion of total commercial real estate foreclosures, they are crucial for providing a more transparent view of the overall market. These sales create a clear benchmark for valuing the loans in CMBS, which are otherwise complex to assess due to the intricacies of the securitization process.
Recent months have seen a spike in distressed sales of CMBS loans. In June, foreclosures and short sales liquidated $2.6 billion in CMBS-related loans, the highest since September 2017, as reported by Trepp LLC. This increase suggests that lenders are growing impatient with borrowers failing to meet payment obligations.
These sales also indicate the nearing end of federal support measures for borrowers during the pandemic, such as the loan payment deferral program set to expire in September. As these aids conclude, an uptick in distressed sales is anticipated.
The escalation in CMBS foreclosures is likely to persist as the economic repercussions of the pandemic worsen. Moody’s Analytics forecasts that the delinquency rate for CMBS loans might exceed the peak experienced during the 2008 financial crisis.
While the full impact on the commercial real estate market is yet to be determined, the surge in distressed sales is a definitive sign of looming troubles. Investors and lenders are closely monitoring the CMBS market for additional signs of distress, as it could indicate broader weaknesses in the commercial property sector.
